More Than a Delivery Company
| Rating | BUY |
| Price (Feb 25, 2026) | $173.18 |
| Price Target | % To PT | $201.85 | +16.5% |
| Market Cap | $75.2B |
| Ticker | DASH |
DoorDash
DoorDash made $0.88 in Adjusted EBITDA on every order it delivered in 2025, up 60% from two years ago, and the market has barely noticed. The stock trades at 20x forward EBITDA as if profitability is still a question. It is not. Three margin drivers are converging in 2026, and the trailing numbers the market is anchored to will look stale within two quarters.
Investment thesis
Not a food delivery company anymore
The market values DASH like a food delivery company with a rich multiple. The right lens is a local commerce platform in the early innings of monetizing a network it has already built. A food delivery company at 20x forward EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) is expensive. A platform with 56 million MAUs, 30% revenue growth, a scaling advertising flywheel, and expanding verticals at 20x is arguably cheap.
EBITDA per order has grown 60% in two years, from $0.55 to $0.88, on a stable 13.4% take rate. The improvement is from cost efficiency and revenue mix, not higher pricing. The company extracted 700 basis points of opex compression in 2025. Three catalysts (Deliveroo, new verticals breakeven, advertising) converge in 2026 to push EBITDA from $2.8B to $3.6B.
CEO Tony Xu framed the frequency gap on Q4: DashPass users order a couple of times per week against 20-25+ weekly eating and shopping occasions. DoorDash operates across 40+ countries, generating $13.7B in revenue (+28%) and $935M in GAAP net income on 3.2 billion orders and $102B of Marketplace GOV (Gross Order Value) in 2025. MAUs hit 56M.
Trading snapshot
| Shares Out | 434.4M |
| Market Cap | $75.2B |
| TEV | $73.0B |
| Net Cash | $2.2B |
| 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEV / Revenue | 5.3x | 4.1x | 3.4x |
| TEV / EBITDA | 59.9x | 20.2x | 15.3x |
| P / E | 81.4x | 31.2x | 22.6x |
DashPass
The flywheel
DashPass had a record year and record quarter in Q4 2025. Subscribers retain more, order more, and try new categories, producing more gross profit dollars per user. The tradeoff: per-order margins compress but absolute profit dollars rise. CFO Ravi Inukonda flagged this as the reason U.S. restaurant margin improvement slows in 2026. Each successive cohort graduates faster into grocery and retail, driving the platform flywheel.
Margin waterfall
2025A to 2026E (+$787M EBITDA)
- Deliveroo (~$200M): Guided by Inukonda. Growing faster than the pre-deal plan. Integration front-loaded; full year target unchanged.
- Core operating leverage (~$400M): Revenue grew 28% while COGS grew 22%, S&M (Sales and Marketing) 22%, R&D (Research and Development) 23%, G&A (General and Administrative) just 10%. SBC (Stock-Based Compensation) at 7.7% of revenue, down ~500bps from 12.6% in 2023.
- New verticals (~$100-150M): Grocery/retail expected unit economic positive in H2 2026. International ex-Deliveroo contribution profit positive in the same window.
- Offset by investment (~negative $100M): Tech stack unification, AV (autonomous vehicle) R&D, DashMart. OpEx guided at ~2% of GOV.
Key financials
| 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Orders (M) | 2,161 | 2,583 | 3,172 | 3,972E | 4,629E |
| Marketplace GOV ($M) | 66,771 | 80,231 | 102,018 | 133,075E | 159,687E |
| Revenue ($M) | 8,635 | 10,722 | 13,717 | 17,879 | 21,398 |
| Y/Y Growth | 31.2% | 24.2% | 27.9% | 30.3% | 19.7% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 1,190 | 1,900 | 2,779 | 3,620 | 4,775 |
| Margin (% Rev) | 13.8% | 17.7% | 20.3% | 20.2% | 22.3% |
| Diluted EPS | (1.42) | 0.29 | 2.13 | 5.55 | 7.64 |
| FCF ($M) / per Share | 1,349 / $3.11 | 1,802 / $4.15 | 1,826 / $4.20 | ~2,480 / ~$5.71E | ~3,400 / ~$7.83E |
| SBC (% of Revenue) | 12.6% | 10.2% | 7.7% | -- | -- |
Order economics
| 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOV / Order | $30.90 | $31.06 | $32.16 | $33.50E | $34.50E |
| Revenue / Order | $4.00 | $4.15 | $4.32 | $4.49E | $4.62E |
| Adj. EBITDA / Order | $0.55 | $0.74 | $0.88 | $0.90E | $1.02E |
| Take Rate (Rev/GOV) | 12.9% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% |
The advertising opportunity
DASH doubled advertisers and tripled ad spend from Symbiosys, yet monetization is almost entirely restaurant-focused. At 2% of GOV, ad revenue would be ~$2.7B. At 3% (where Instacart already operates), it exceeds $4B. Nearly pure-margin.
Key debates
- Investment spend bleeds into 2027+: Inukonda was specific: quantum unchanged, tech stack redundancy mostly 2026. Even if $50-100M carries over, DASH generates $4.5B+ EBITDA by 2027.
- Food delivery is a commodity: The moat is logistics density, selection breadth across 40+ countries, and DashPass lock-in. Subscribers ordering 2-3x per week do not casually switch.
- Uber is a formidable competitor: DASH gained U.S. share while growing faster. The restaurant business "grew faster at a larger scale compared to 2024."
- New verticals may take longer: Impact is ~$3-5/share if negative through 2027. Thesis rests on core leverage and Deliveroo.
Capital allocation and governance
$5.0B buyback fully available against $6.3B liquidity and ~$1.8B annual FCF (Free Cash Flow). $2.75B 0% convertible notes due 2030 with $680M hedge. 2025 FCF was flat because capex doubled to $605M; as that normalizes, FCF reaches ~$3.4B by 2027E ($7.83/share). At $173, the stock trades at a 3.3% 2026E FCF yield on a 20%+ grower. Tony Xu controls the company via dual-class shares (Class B, 20 votes each).
Valuation
Base case DCF (Discounted Cash Flow): 30% 2026E revenue growth to 12% by 2030E, EBITDA margins from 20% to 26%, 11% WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital), blended terminal value (3.0% perpetuity / 16.0x exit EV/EBITDA).
Scenario analysis
| Bear | Base | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probability Weight | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| 2026E Revenue ($M) | $17,146 | $17,832 | $18,518 |
| 2030E EBITDA Margin | 23.0% | 26.0% | 31.0% |
| WACC / Exit Multiple | 12% / 12x | 11% / 16x | 10% / 20x |
| Implied Share Price | $102.46 | $186.47 | $332.02 |
Weighted Average PT: $201.85 (+16.6%)
Comparable company analysis
| TEV/Rev 2026E | TEV/EBITDA 2026E | TEV/EBITDA 2027E | P/E 2026E | Rev Growth 2025A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | 2.5x | 12.8x | 10.0x | 21.3x | ~14% |
| GRAB | 3.1x | 17.5x | 13.1x | 46.8x | ~20% |
| CART | 2.2x | 7.1x | 6.4x | 16.3x | ~8% |
| Median | 2.5x | 12.8x | 10.0x | 21.3x | -- |
| DASH | 4.1x | 20.2x | 15.3x | 31.2x | 28% |
Catalysts
New verticals gross profit positive in H2 2026 is the key near-term proof point. $5B buyback fully available. Advertising in grocery/retail could reach ~$2.7B at 2% of GOV. FCF re-accelerates to ~$3.4B by 2027E as capex normalizes.
Risks
Investment spending extending into 2027 is the top risk. European competition could pressure Deliveroo below $200M. DashPass take rate compression may outpace volume. Regulatory and macro overhangs persist.
Recommendation
BUY. Per-order EBITDA up 60% in two years, $6.3B balance sheet with an undeployed $5B buyback, and three margin drivers converging in 2026. At a 3.3% 2026E FCF yield on a 20%+ grower, the stock is mispriced. Target: $201.85 (+16.6%).
Disclosures: For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Source materials: DoorDash 10-K (FY2025), Q4 2025 earnings transcript, S&P Capital IQ.